Monday, March 31, 2008

Zimbabwe – Any Brinks Left to Step Back From?

Probably not – election results are being released in painfully slow fashion. It seems likely that things are so bad for Mugabe that they can’t falsify the results fast enough.

Given that the “nominally independent” Electoral Commission has only released the results from 24 House of Assembly contests, and then split the seats 50/50 is highly suggestive. It’s even more suggestive that one of Mugabe’s cabinet lost his seat.

As long as the security forces and Army line up behind Mugabe, the vote doesn’t really matter. The unfortunate consequence is more beatings of the opposition, misery, inflation, joblessness, and corruption. And that’s the best case scenario. The worst case is likely to be civil war and genocide.

Soon we’ll see the “get behind the fist” slogan in action.

Update (01 April 2008): I’m still not convinced that Mugabe or his henchmen are going to go quietly. There’s too much money on the table, plus the fears of retribution for the decades of lining their own pockets via socialism.

Hope I’m wrong about this, and the rumors of a minimally violent transition are true.