Monday, March 03, 2008

US to Intervene In Colombia?

Assuming that Chavez is actually going to invade Colombia, our response (assuming that Congress can be persuaded to take any action at all against an up and coming Hero of the Revolution) will likely be limited to air strikes and cruise missiles.

If nothing else, this should push the price of oil into the $200 bbl range, making the greens happy, but completing the push into a recession.

For all his oil money, I don’t think that Chavez can afford an extensive campaign, nor can he afford to lose any critical infrastructure. He’s spent a lot of money on weaponry, useful for bullying one’s neighbors, but unlikely to stand up against a US carrier battle group.

The upside for Chavez – he gets to stir up the peasantry against US / Colombian aggression, and if push comes to shove, try to shift the blame to the Army, so he can purge it’s leadership.

As the map shows, there’s a long border between the two countries. Equador is on the other side of Colombia from Venezuela. No common border there. Furthermore, if Venezuela launches an attack, I doubt that Ecuador is going to participate.

The Ecuadorians have to be mad, or at least embarrassed by the Colombian raid. However, this is usually the sort of thing where you recall your ambassador for consultations, and make some diplomatic noise. Especially since groups like FARC are a threat to your own country.

It would be interesting to hear Senator Obama’s thoughts on this issue – Colombia has essentially implemented the Senator’s proposal to invade Pakistan in search of terrorists in Ecuador.

Map is from