Friday, March 07, 2008

The Clinton / Obama Ticket

Or is that Obama / Clinton? Senator Clinton still dropping hints about this, but I just don’t see it happening. Somehow, I don’t think that she’s angling for the VP slot with Obama at the top of the ticket.

It’s conceivable that Sen. Obama could pick her as VP, but she’s not exactly what he needs. Given his lack of experience, he’ll probably reach out to get a proven executive type like a former governor, or someone with extensive national security / defense credentials.

You really have to wonder if Hillary Clinton would be content to play second fiddle – again – for another 4 to 8 years. Her time is now; 2012 or 2016 is too late.

From Obama’s perspective, he’s got to realize that while lots of things have been said about Hillary Clinton, the expression ‘loyal subordinate’ hasn’t exactly been at the top of the list. And looking the other way at Bill’s, ummm, issues doesn’t counter the point, since it was in her interest in future political viability that sent her back to the kitchen to bake cookies on his behalf, so to speak. With Obama, her interests may not be as aligned…

So for this to work, Senator Clinton has to win the nomination. Assuming that this goes to the convention and the ‘supers’ decide, or worse, backroom shenanigans sit the Florida and Michigan delegates without a ‘do over’, Senator Obama’s gonna feel swindled, given his likely lead in pledged delegates. As well he should.

Leading in pledged delegates going into the convention, he’s unlikely to want to be told to go sit in the back of the bus. And has further incentives to not do so: being VP ties him to the Clintons, ruling out a 2012 run if the Hillary wins. By 2016, he’s not the voice of change, and is indelibly marked with whatever fresh scandals the Clintons generate.

And they will generate more scandals, since their primary driver seems to be political power for the sake of personal enrichment.

If Senator Obama falls short this year, his best bet is to go back to the Senate, or run for Governor, and build some solid accomplishments.

Of course, if Hillary gets the nod this year without a majority of pledged delegates and Obama’s supporters stay home, it’s very bad for the Democrats.