Thursday, March 22, 2007

Mugabe – Nearing the End of the Rope?

Zimbabwe can only hope.

If this report on Captain’s Quarters is accurate, the end is getting close. A dictatorship that can’t rely on it’s own security forces is doomed.

And if I were running Angola, I wouldn’t put 2,500 crack troops at risk. When Zimbabwe turns really ugly, they may well suffer substantial losses. These guys may be feared in Angola, and Angola might well be the superior power, but it’s a small number of light infantry. Far from home.

The likely scenario, as Mugabe increasingly relies on mercenaries: small provocations, lure small units out to investigate / retaliate, and ambush. Either Angola escalates with regular army (expensive), or withdraws.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

At which point Mugabe may well be facing the end of a well deserved rope.