Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Secretary Rice, The UN, and Hezbollah

Has fallen prey to the diplomat’s disease, that of wishful thinking. Busy touting the triumph of UN diplomacy in creating a cease fire in Lebanon in the Op-Ed page of the Washington Post, she’s already overtaken by events on page 1.

So, for all of this,
1. Hezbollah will remain.
2. The Lebanese government is unwilling or unable to disarm Hezbollah, or both.
3. Hezbollah is now well on it’s way from going from a ‘state within a state’ to a situation where Lebanon is now the ‘state within a state’. Look for Hezbollah to expand their control over the rest of Lebanon. They’ll get plenty of help from Syria and Iran.
4. The UN will provide additional human shields for Hezbollah’s use.
5. Hezbollah gains time to rebuild and rearm.

About the only positive in all of this is that it may provide Israel some political cover to go back and fix things once the rockets start flying again. However, this assumes that Olmert will be replaced with someone capable.